Ukraine Faces Shortage of Troops       10/08 06:03

   Ukraine's advances in drone technology and tactics have captured the world's 
attention. Despite those innovations, one problem has plagued the country since 
the start of Russia's invasion: a shortage of combat-ready troops.

   KYIV, Ukraine (AP) -- Ukraine's advances in drone technology and tactics 
have captured the world's attention. Despite those innovations, one problem has 
plagued the country since the start of Russia's invasion: a shortage of 
combat-ready troops.

   Ukraine always has been outmanned by Russia, but as the war drags through 
its fifth year, the need for personnel is increasingly acute, commanders and 
analysts say, with some units at only half strength. There just aren't enough 
forces to fully exploit the battlefield advantages resulting from the drone 
innovations.

   "Based on the equipment and the number of people we have today, we barely 
have enough to hold the sector we currently have," said a deputy commander of 
the Da Vinci Wolves battalion in eastern Ukraine's Pokrovsk area, a focus of 
Russia's offensive.

   "To move forward would inevitably mean greater losses," said the deputy 
commander, who insisted on identifying himself only as "Afer" because of 
military rules.

   Long-standing mobilization problems, including draft dodging and desertion, 
make it harder for Ukraine to build its reserves, according to military 
experts, resulting in only incremental changes along the 1,250-kilometer 
(775-mile) front line.

   Ukraine needs to replenish exhausted front-line forces 

   Ukraine needs to be able to commit forces quickly without taking them from 
elsewhere on the front. Otherwise, commanders have fewer options to turn a 
temporary advantage into a sustained operation, said Nick Reynolds of the 
U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank.

   The shortage means that units can't be rotated often enough, he said, 
"leading to exhaustion and, in turn, exacerbating casualties."

   The Defense Ministry, which in July underwent a shake-up by President 
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is trying to tackle the problem with reforms to 
mobilization, training and the way the army is organized.

   Uneven performance by front-line units worsens the problem. Weaker 
formations suffer heavier losses, creating a cycle of high attrition and 
constant replenishment.

   The ministry did not respond to Associated Press requests for comment, but 
one of its officials summarized the problem by saying, "There just are not 
enough people."

   Developing a new mobilization policy, including encouraging deserters to 
return to duty, is among the most sensitive issues under consideration, said 
the official, who was not authorized to brief the media and spoke on condition 
of anonymity.

   Former defense minister had sought military reforms 

   Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was replaced by Yevhenii 
Khmara in the summer shake-up by Zelenskyy, had sought to reorganize the 
military around fewer but stronger units. He wanted to reinforce those that 
performed well and disband the weaker ones.

   Khmara has said he wants to continue those changes.

   But the reforms will take time. Yehor Cherniev, a member of parliament's 
defense committee, said lawmakers have yet to see mobilization initiatives.

   In June, Fedorov introduced reforms to military contracts designed to make 
infantry service more attractive by offering higher salaries and fixed terms of 
service.

   Convincing Ukrainians who have little incentive to fight is a major 
challenge after more than four years of war, and the country is struggling to 
recruit enough troops from its estimated population of 39 million.

   Ukraine has a smaller pool of eligible men 

   The pool of men aged 25-60 is relatively small following years of 
demographic decline from war-related displacement and migration. There are 
about 6.8 million men aged 25-59, according to U.N. figures provided by 
Ukraine's National Health System, but that includes wounded veterans and men 
otherwise unable to serve.

   Official figures put the military's strength at about 1 million, with only a 
small fraction deployed at the front.

   Compulsory service applies only to men. Women are allowed to volunteer, and 
those with medical or pharmaceutical training are required to register with the 
military. Over 70,000 women are serving in the army, according to Defense 
Ministry statistics in January 2025.

   In March, Fedorov said about 2 million Ukrainian men were evading service, 
while about 200,000 soldiers had deserted or left their units without 
authorization. The penalty for desertion is imprisonment of up to 12 years.

   Some men flee the country illegally or hide at home. Recruiters sometimes 
stop them on streets and trains, and those without valid exemptions are sent 
into the army. In January 2025, the government said about 950,000 men had 
deferments at the request of businesses.

   Russia, with an estimated population of 143 million, also is struggling to 
fill its military ranks. It launched a widely unpopular partial mobilization of 
300,000 reservists months after launching the invasion, and hundreds of 
thousands of men fled abroad. Since then, the Kremlin has relied on volunteers 
lured by relatively high pay and benefits to sustain its force of what 
President Vladimir Putin has said numbers about 700,000 men fighting in Ukraine.

   Battered forces are serving longer at the front 

   Ukraine's problem is not so much a shortage of personnel but how they are 
managed and deployed, said military analyst Taras Chmut, who also heads Come 
Back Alive, a charity providing assistance to the army.

   Increasing the number of personnel in the defense forces does not 
necessarily increase their effectiveness, Chmut said.

   Exhaustion, poor organization, inadequate training and the lack of a clear 
end-of-service date drive recruits to desert, according to soldiers and 
military analysts.

   The consequences are felt immediately at the front, with fewer troops to 
replace battered units or available for emergencies, and a diminished ability 
to divert forces when an opening appears. Drones can sometimes alleviate the 
shortages.

   With replacements scarce, some troops have spent up to a year at the front 
with little opportunity for rotation, said Afer, the deputy commander of the Da 
Vinci Wolves battalion. His unit is operating at only about half its strength 
while its area of responsibility has doubled, he said, meaning the same number 
of forces must defend about twice the territory.

   Ideally, at least twice as many men are needed simply to hold current 
positions, but that doesn't take into account that a constant reserve of troops 
is needed to replace casualties, he said.

   It's also a struggle to find qualified specialists who can operate 
increasingly sophisticated equipment on the battlefield, Afer said, adding that 
troops "who know how to think" are in short supply.

   Only small offensives are possible 

   Ukraine can conduct localized offensives but not enough to shift the broader 
battlefield balance, despite mounting Russian losses. Even so, it has retaken 
territory in several areas, including in operations near the eastern city of 
Lyman.

   Pavlo Narozhnyi, a Ukrainian military analyst, said he did not consider 
manpower an insurmountable problem for simply holding the defensive line.

   "We can do limited offensives," he said, pointing to recent actions in the 
Dnipropetrovsk and Lyman areas, "but it's relatively small."

   Russian forces have occupied roughly 990 square kilometers (about 380 square 
miles) of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of 2026, while Ukrainian 
forces have retaken about 820 square kilometers (316 square miles), according 
to figures cited by Zelenskyy, who added that Kyiv aims to bring those figures 
closer to parity by year's end.

   But RUSI's Reynolds said there would not be fundamental changes to the 
broader battlefield balance, with the front line essentially remaining the same.