Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in the March issue of Progressive Farmer.

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There is little denying at this point that the 2025 corn crop in the United States was a bin buster. We could scrutinize the exact accuracy of USDA estimates for hours, and the acreage drama alone will likely be talked about for years to come. But, the bottom line is that unless USDA missed by an unprecedented 1.68 billion bushels (bb) in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, then the 2025 crop was indeed a record. National average basis levels being the second weakest of the past decade as of late January stand as hard evidence that the seven-year-high forecast for U.S. corn stockpiles of more than 2 bb is fairly accurate, as well. However, broaden the corn market picture to include the world balance sheet, and the situation is wildly different.

While U.S. stocks stand estimated at a seven-year high, USDA's total world estimate in January was an 11-year low. And, what's even more noteworthy is the distribution of corn supplies around the globe, with the U.S. and China being the owners of over 80% of world reserves. Taking the U.S. and China inventories out of the equation, the remaining world ending stocks ratio relative to demand in those countries sits at 8.6%, the lowest since 2001.

Essentially, world corn-production expansion outside of the U.S. and China (yes, that includes Brazil and Argentina) has not matched the growth of demand in the years following the COVID-19 pandemic. The jury is still out on where South American production will land in 2026. The January USDA forecast called for the second-largest combined crop on record for Brazil and Argentina, yet the production deficit (production minus domestic consumption) for countries other than the U.S. and China is expected to be roughly 2.6 bb, the largest in 10 years.

Considering the above statistics, it is easy to see why the appetite for U.S. corn around the globe continues to surge, with the U.S. anticipated to export more than 3 bb of corn for the first time in the 2025-26 marketing year.

The U.S. enjoys a distinct advantage in that the world's largest corn importer, Mexico, is our neighbor. The diversity among world demand also presents opportunity to U.S. exporters. In 2024-25, the top six corn-importing countries accounted for 50% of the yearly volume, while the next 50% was composed of more than 100 countries and regions. This is a stark contrast to the share of exports among world suppliers, with Argentina, Brazil and the U.S. accounting for over 75% of world corn exports in 2024-25. With domestic demand in No. 2 exporter Brazil growing at an impressive clip, as well, the U.S. remains well-positioned, at least in the immediate future, to maintain a steady to rising share of the world corn trade.

Rhett Montgomery can be reached at rhett.montgomery@dtn.com

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